We get this question every week now, and the answer is more complicated than either side wants it to be.
The utility rebate programs and the federal tax credits want you to believe heat pumps are the obvious future. The HVAC contractors who've been installing gas furnaces for 30 years want you to believe heat pumps are overhyped. Neither is giving you the whole picture.
We install both. We have opinions. Here's what actually matters for a Utah homeowner trying to figure out which one belongs in their house.
The quick version (for people who just want the answer)
Install a gas furnace if:
- Your current furnace works and isn't that old
- Your house has existing ductwork and gas service
- You want the lowest upfront cost
- You live in the mountains or somewhere that sees sustained sub-zero cold
- Natural gas prices stay reasonable (which they usually do in Utah)
Install a heat pump if:
- You're also replacing your AC anyway (this is the killer argument)
- You want one system that does both heating and cooling
- You're eligible for significant utility rebates or federal tax credits
- You care about electrification for climate reasons
- You want a quieter system
- You live in the Wasatch Front valley, not up a canyon
Install a dual-fuel system (heat pump + furnace) if:
- You can afford the slightly higher upfront cost
- You want maximum efficiency in mild weather AND maximum reliability in bitter cold
- Your natural gas is relatively cheap
For most of our Lehi customers, dual-fuel is the answer. But let's break down why.
How a heat pump actually works (the short version)
An air-source heat pump is just an air conditioner that can run backwards. In summer, it pulls heat out of your house and dumps it outside — same as a regular AC. In winter, it does the opposite: it pulls heat OUT of the cold outdoor air and brings it INSIDE.
Yes, even cold outdoor air has heat in it, from a physics standpoint. A modern cold-climate heat pump can still extract useful heat when it's 10°F outside. Older heat pumps from 10+ years ago couldn't do this well, which is where the "heat pumps don't work in cold climates" reputation comes from. Modern ones are different machines.
The big advantage of a heat pump is efficiency. A gas furnace is 80-96% efficient — for every unit of gas energy you put in, you get 0.8 to 0.96 units of heat. A heat pump has a COP (coefficient of performance) of 2.5 to 4.0 — for every unit of electrical energy, you get 2.5 to 4 units of heat, because it's not creating heat, just moving it.
On paper, this sounds like a no-brainer. In practice, it depends on what electricity costs you versus what natural gas costs you.
The Utah math: what do heat pumps actually cost to run here?
This is the part contractors usually hand-wave because the answer is nuanced.
Rocky Mountain Power's residential electricity rate in Utah is around $0.11-0.13/kWh depending on tier and season. Dominion Energy's residential natural gas rate is around $0.90-1.10 per therm, roughly.
Running the numbers for a typical 2,500 square foot Utah home in a normal winter:
- Gas furnace at 95% AFUE: ~$850-1,100/year for heating
- Heat pump (cold-climate rated) alone: ~$900-1,200/year for heating
- Dual-fuel (heat pump above 30°F, furnace below): ~$700-950/year for heating
Those numbers depend heavily on how well your house is insulated, how cold the winter is, and your utility's time-of-use rates. But the pattern is consistent: a dual-fuel system is cheapest to run in Utah because it uses whichever fuel is more efficient at any given moment.
A heat pump alone is competitive with gas, sometimes slightly better, sometimes slightly worse. The headlines about heat pumps saving tons of money mostly come from areas where electricity is cheap and gas is expensive. In Utah, gas is relatively cheap, so the efficiency advantage of a heat pump gets partially eaten by the higher cost per unit of electricity.
The upfront cost question
This is where heat pumps look worse on paper:
- Gas furnace replacement: ~$4,000-7,500 depending on efficiency and install complexity
- Central air conditioner replacement: ~$5,000-8,500
- Heat pump replacement (replaces BOTH furnace and AC function): ~$8,000-14,000
- Dual-fuel (heat pump + backup furnace): ~$11,000-18,000
Before rebates, the heat pump is more expensive than either a furnace OR an AC by themselves. But notice the trick: the heat pump does BOTH jobs. If you were going to replace both your AC and your furnace, the comparison flips:
- Furnace + AC replaced separately: ~$9,000-16,000
- Heat pump replacing both: ~$8,000-14,000
- Dual-fuel replacing both: ~$11,000-18,000
Suddenly heat pumps look much more reasonable. This is why the single most common good-case for a heat pump in Utah is: your AC is dying AND your furnace is getting old.
The rebates matter more than most people realize
The federal Inflation Reduction Act includes a 30% tax credit on qualified heat pump installations, capped at $2,000 for most systems. Utah's state and utility rebates stack on top: Dominion Energy offers rebates for dual-fuel systems, Rocky Mountain Power offers rebates for heat pumps, and the state periodically adds more on top of that.
Between all of them, a well-qualified Utah customer can knock $3,000-5,000 off the cost of a heat pump install. That's the difference between "same price as a furnace" and "actually cheaper than a furnace." We walk customers through the current available rebates on every heat pump quote because they change every year and they materially affect the decision.
Cold-climate performance: the thing people worry about
Five years ago, we would have told you that heat pumps struggled below 25°F and you needed gas backup. Today, cold-climate heat pumps from Mitsubishi, Daikin, and Fujitsu are rated to maintain full heating capacity at 5°F and still work (at reduced capacity) at -13°F.
Utah Valley rarely gets colder than 10°F except for a few nights in a bad winter. Up in canyon homes and mountain properties it can, but for the vast majority of Lehi, Eagle Mountain, Saratoga Springs, and the Salt Lake Valley, a modern cold-climate heat pump will handle your winter just fine.
The compromise: if you want certainty, install a dual-fuel system. The heat pump does 90% of the work efficiently, and the backup gas furnace kicks in only on the coldest nights of the year. You get the best of both.
What we actually recommend, customer by customer
When a customer asks us to recommend, we ask these questions first:
- How old is your current furnace? If it's under 10 years old and working fine, keep it. Don't replace what isn't broken.
- How old is your current AC? If it's over 12 years old, it's going to fail soon. If you're going to replace it anyway, a heat pump becomes the obvious answer.
- Is your ductwork in good shape? Heat pumps move more air than furnaces. If your ducts are already undersized or leaky, you need to fix that first.
- Where does the house sit? Foothills and canyons — lean toward dual-fuel. Valley floor — heat pump alone is usually fine.
- How long do you plan to stay in the house? Heat pumps have longer payback periods. If you're moving in 3 years, the math gets harder.
We've installed straight heat pumps for families in Saratoga Springs who got nearly $5,000 in rebates and will save money from day one. We've also installed dual-fuel systems for customers in Alpine whose kids wanted electrification but who needed reliability on the sub-zero nights. And we've installed plain gas furnaces for customers whose AC was fine and whose old furnace just needed replacement.
There is no single right answer. There is a right answer for your specific house.
The honest short version
Heat pumps in Utah are legitimately good technology now. They're not a scam and they're not a silver bullet. The math on whether they make sense for YOUR house depends on:
- Whether you also need a new AC (strong yes on heat pump)
- Whether you qualify for current rebates (big factor)
- How cold your specific location gets (matters for sizing)
- How long you're staying in the house (matters for payback)
If you want us to come look at what you have and run the actual numbers for your specific house, that's a free visit. We'll tell you what we'd install if it were our own house — same answer we give our own families. Sometimes it's a heat pump. Sometimes it's a furnace. Usually it's a dual-fuel system. Always it's the system that actually makes sense.